How low will mortgage rates go in 2024?
30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
In its January Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will fall from 6.9% in the first quarter of 2024 to 6.1% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall below the 6% threshold in the first quarter of 2025.
Many experts predict interest rates will remain at their current level for most of 2024. This may mean that mortgage rates stay at or about the same level as now for many months before possibly starting to fall towards the end of 2024.
If all goes well, by the time 2025 comes around, we could see mortgage rates closer to 6%, or maybe even lower.
Date | Value |
---|---|
March 31, 2025 | 3.50% |
December 31, 2024 | 3.50% |
September 30, 2024 | 5.75% |
June 30, 2024 | 5.75% |
However, in 2024, home prices are expected to rebound and continue their upward trend. C.A.R. forecasts that the median home price will rise by 6.2% to $860,300 in 2024, surpassing the previous record of $822,300 set in 2022. This means that buyers will face higher costs and lower affordability in 2024.
To combat ongoing inflation, it raised the federal funds rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. After its December 2023 session, the Fed forecasted it would make three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the benchmark rate to 4.6%.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
MBA's baseline forecast is for mortgage rates to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and the spread narrows.
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
Rates also increased dramatically last year, though they trended back down toward the end of 2023. As inflation comes down, mortgage rates will recede as well. Most major forecasts expect rates to go down throughout 2024.
Will 2025 be a better time to buy a house?
The housing market will see some upside in the coming years, but persistent challenges will limit a bigger shift, according to Fannie Mae's latest forecast. Total home sales in 2024 will come in at about 4.8 million, largely flat compared to this year's expected level, followed by a jump to 5.4 million in 2025.
Based on recent data, Trading Economics predicts a rise to 5% in 2023 before falling back down to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
According to the Fed's most recent economic projections from December, economists don't see inflation subsiding to 2.0% on a consistent basis until 2026, which could mean higher but declining short-term interest rates for the next two years.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
"If you're thinking about selling your home, this is absolutely the time to do it," said Mike Mclean, licensed real estate agent at Signature Premier Properties. Mclean thinks now, and most of 2024, will still be a sellers' market, despite mortgage interest rates still higher than most would like.
While it's true that recessions can create opportunities to purchase homes at potentially lower prices, it's not guaranteed. Waiting for a recession to buy a house may not be the best strategy as home prices could remain high regardless of a recession.
You'll find the best inventory of houses in spring. If you're after a bargain, consider searching for a house in late autumn or winter. Inventory is lower, but you have a higher likelihood of getting a house below the asking price.
Many forecasters expect rates to remain well under 7 percent this year. McBride expects them to drop all the way to 5.75 percent by the end of 2024. “Inflation has been coming down — and coming down faster than expected in recent months — which bodes well for mortgage rates,” says McBride.
Money's average mortgage rates for February 26, 2024
The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.931%, a decrease of 0.139 percentage points.
What is the average 30-year mortgage rate?
We expect total home sales in 2024 to rise 5.0 percent to 5.00 million units, a slight upgrade from 4.96 million units in our prior forecast. We expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to decrease to 5.9 percent by the end of 2024, a tick higher than our prior outlook.
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
However, there are some general things we can say about the conditions in which mortgage rates tend to rise. Typically, mortgage rates are rising because inflation is going up and the Federal Reserve has changed the target on the federal funds rate to get prices back under control.
The good news is that inflation is cooling, and many experts expect interest rates to move in a downward direction in 2024. Then again, a two-point drop would be significant, and even if rates fall, they're not likely to get down to 5% within the next year.
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