How do interest rates affect consumer spending?
The lower the interest rate, the more willing people are to borrow money to make big purchases, such as houses or cars. When consumers pay less in interest, this gives them more money to spend, which can create a ripple effect of increased spending throughout the economy.
Rising interest rates affects spending because the cost of borrowing money goes up. So, if you have a mortgage, any type of credit card or a loan, you could end up paying more for the money you originally borrowed. This will mean that you inevitably have less money to spend on goods and services.
Higher interest rates can make borrowing money more expensive for consumers and businesses, while also potentially making it harder to get approved for loans. On the positive side, higher interest rates can benefit savers as banks increase yields to attract more deposits.
Consumer spending is by far the biggest driver of the economy. For example, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2023's fourth quarter, personal consumption expenditures represented nearly 68% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, the primary measure of the size of the U.S. economy.
The key factor that determines consumer spending is income and employment. Those who have steady wages have the ability to make discretionary purhcases, thereby generating demand. Other factors include prices, interest, and general consumer confidence.
When the central bank increases interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive. In this environment, both consumers and businesses might think twice about taking out loans for major purchases or investments. This slows down spending, typically lowering overall demand and hopefully reducing inflation.
A rise in interest rates often means that it will cost you more to borrow money. A rise in interest rates may affect you if: you have a mortgage, a line of credit or other loans with variable interest rates. you'll need to renew a fixed interest rate mortgage or loan.
There are four possible effects of an increase in the money supply on interest rates: the liquidity effect, the income effect, the price-level effect, and the expected- inflation effect.
Higher interest rates increase the return on savings. They also make the cost of borrowing more expensive. Higher interest rates help to slow down price rises (inflation).
The interest rate for each different type of loan, however, depends on the credit risk, time, tax considerations (particularly in the U.S.), and convertibility of the particular loan.
How does increasing interest rates reduce inflation?
Still, the basic rationale is that making the financing of resources or products, such as mortgages, more expensive, market participants are less willing to spend, thus the vendors of such resources and products do not have to raise their prices to account for the demand growing faster than supply in the short run.
Higher interest rates have gotten a bad rap, but over the long term, they may provide more income for savers and help investors allocate capital more efficiently. In a higher-rate environment, equity investors can seek opportunities in value-oriented and defensive sectors as well as international stocks.
More jobs and higher wages increase household incomes and lead to a rise in consumer spending, further increasing aggregate demand and the scope for firms to increase the prices of their goods and services. When this happens across a large number of businesses and sectors, this leads to an increase in inflation.
As the labor market tightened during 2021 and 2022, core inflation rose as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment increased. This ratio is used to measure wage pressures that then pass through to the prices for goods and services.
"According to economists, the goal of a consumer is to spend available income so as to maximize utility."
In an inflationary environment, unevenly rising prices inevitably reduce the purchasing power of some consumers, and this erosion of real income is the single biggest cost of inflation. Inflation can also distort purchasing power over time for recipients and payers of fixed interest rates.
Consumption is financed primarily out of our income. Therefore real wages will be an important determinant, but consumer spending is also influenced by other factors, such as interest rates, inflation, confidence, saving rates and availability of finance.
Jobs and Spending
A healthy labor market has been the driving force behind consumer spending, including a 3.1% annual jump in retail sales in the past three months. With the unemployment rate at 3.9%, near historic lows, the majority of working-age Americans are earning regular paychecks.
High interest rates can create a sense of economic uncertainty, as they often signal a slowing economy. This can lead to decreased consumer confidence and reduced spending and investment.
This is inflation's primary and most pervasive effect. An overall rise in prices over time reduces the purchasing power of consumers since a fixed amount of money will afford progressively less consumption. Consumers lose purchasing power regardless of what the inflation rate is—whether it's 2% or 4%.
Do high interest rates discourage spending?
Rate hikes make it more expensive to borrow, discouraging consumers from making large purchases and companies from hiring and investing.
It's not just consumer purchases that interest rates can impact. When interest rates rise it's also more expensive for businesses to borrow money. This often means less growth and lower profit expectations. In theory, this should lower the share price of a company.
With an increase in interest rates, businesses with company credit cards and existing loans can have higher interest payments, less disposable income and bigger overheads.
The Fed has repeatedly raised rates in an effort to corral rampant inflation that has reached 40-year highs. Higher interest rates may help curb soaring prices, but they also increase the cost of borrowing for mortgages, personal loans and credit cards.
Inflation is measured by the consumer price index (CPI), and at low rates, it keeps the economy healthy. But when the rate of inflation rises rapidly, it can result in lower purchasing power, higher interest rates, slower economic growth and other negative economic effects.
References
- https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/7-percent-interest-savings-accounts
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/111715/can-deflation-be-good.asp
- https://fortune.com/recommends/investing/safe-investments/
- https://themortgagereports.com/76824/what-is-a-good-mortgage-rate-today
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/inflation-interest-rate-relationship.asp
- https://www.cnbc.com/select/interest-rates-rising-saving-more-appealing-debt-more-harmful/
- https://quizlet.com/71434634/money-banking-hw-3-flash-cards/
- https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/will-mortgage-rates-go-down-in-2024
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/20-countries-highest-interest-rates-201639812.html
- https://apnews.com/article/japan-economy-rates-interest-boj-e2deca211671f14f1f3d6277ed3ad3bb
- https://money.usnews.com/loans/mortgages/mortgage-rate-forecast
- https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/is-money-safe-in-bank-during-recession
- https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/beyond-bls/what-caused-inflation-to-spike-after-2020.htm
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/111414/does-inflation-favor-lenders-or-borrowers.asp
- https://www.risk.net/definition/volatility-term-structure
- https://time.com/6227633/inflation-federal-reserve-interest-rates/
- https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL34072.html
- https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2020/02/28/negative-u-s-interest-rates
- https://faculty.babson.edu/ricciardi/MMS/MishkLiquidPref.pdf
- https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/investing-amid-higher-interest-rates
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/07/fixed-variable.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/120715/10-ways-profit-interest-rate-increase.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/101315/do-lower-interest-rates-increase-investment-spending.asp
- https://www.bis.org/publ/confp01n.pdf
- https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/deflation
- https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/10/16/new-look-at-global-banks-highlights-risks-from-higher-for-longer-interest-rates
- https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/banks/why-interest-rates-low-savings/
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-raises-interest-rates/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/interest.asp
- https://www.tutorchase.com/answers/ib/business-management/how-do-interest-rates-and-inflation-impact-business-decisions
- https://www.ulsterbank.co.uk/business/insights/economics/interest-rates/interest-rates-how-could-a-rise-affect-your-business.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk-freerate.asp
- https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/how-do-rising-interest-rates-affect-the-stock-market.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_interest-rate_policy
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/080716/why-negative-interest-rates-are-still-not-working-japan.asp
- https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/how-are-mortgage-rates-determined
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/how-interest-rates-affect-markets.asp
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/is-my-money-safe-in-the-bank/
- https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/Files/Edu/2017/fm-determinants-interest-rates.pdf
- https://www.3vfinance.com/infinance-le-blog/en/everything-you-need-to-know-about-interest-rate-risk
- https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-rates-economy-biden-federal-reserve-539b662f32a3cea4a514407ae4389174
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/pf/09/avoid-five-recession-risks.asp
- https://www.chase.com/personal/banking/education/basics/how-does-raising-interest-rates-help-inflation
- https://www.cibc.com/en/asset-management/insights/investment-research/bank-stocks-smart-investment.html
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Inflation
- https://www.investopedia.com/insights/forces-behind-interest-rates/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/personal-loans/safe-small-dollar-loans
- https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-negative-interest-rates
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/feb/rising-rates-complicate-banks-investment-portfolios
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/what-are-negative-interest-rates-basics
- https://www.occ.gov/publications-and-resources/publications/comptrollers-handbook/files/interest-rate-risk/pub-ch-interest-rate-risk-previous.pdf
- https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-real-interest-rates-by-country/
- https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/
- https://smartasset.com/investing/what-happens-when-interest-rates-rise
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/consider-the-following-statement-according-to-economists-the-goal-of-a-consumer-is-to-spend-available-income-so-as-to-maximize-utility-is-the-statement-true-or-false-explain.html
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/potential-winners-and-losers-higher-interest-rates
- https://www.thebalancemoney.com/credit-risk-vs-interest-rate-risk-417059
- https://www.standard.co.uk/business/negative-interest-rates-good-bad-a4552526.html
- https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2013/ec-201304-why-are-interest-rates-so-low
- https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/consumer-spending.html
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/454492/interest-rates-on-fixed-1-year-deposits-by-country/
- https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/how-federal-reserve-impacts-your-money/
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor-hub/article/interest-rates-2024-which-sectors-will-benefit-rates-high/
- https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/high-interest-rates-benefits-investing-opportunities
- https://www.tutorchase.com/answers/ib/economics/how-do-interest-rates-influence-consumer-spending-and-investment
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
- https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/cfr/working-papers/2006/2006-02.pdf
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082113/understanding-interest-rates-nominal-real-and-effective.asp
- https://quizlet.com/gb/698327454/economic-influences-flash-cards/
- https://www.usatoday.com/money/blueprint/investing/what-assets-are-recession-proof/
- https://www.moneyhelper.org.uk/en/savings/how-to-save/interest-rates-explained
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurverisk.asp
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/26/business/mortgage-rates-housing-market.html
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-economists-brighter-outlook-federal-reserve/
- https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/negative-interest-rates/
- https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/banks-most-at-risk-morningstar
- https://www.cnbc.com/select/when-will-interest-rates-drop/
- https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/causes-of-inflation.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/interestraterisk.asp
- https://www.financestrategists.com/wealth-management/investment-risk/interest-rate-risk/
- https://money.com/8-percent-mortgage-rates/
- https://www.53.com/content/fifth-third/en/financial-insights/personal/financial-education/pros-cons-of-rising-interest-rates.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/insights/122016/9-common-effects-inflation.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/070915/how-negative-interest-rates-work.asp
- https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41323/1/MPRA_paper_41323.pdf
- https://blog.carnegieinvest.com/understanding-interest-rates-advantages-and-disadvantages-of-high-interest-rates
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/interestrate.asp
- https://goodegginvestments.com/blog/high-interest-rates-and-passive-real-estate-investing/
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/interest-rate-risk
- https://www.henley.ac.uk/news/2023/is-raising-interest-rates-the-best-way-to-tackle-inflation
- https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/interest-rates-rise.html
- https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/what-happens-to-interest-rates-during-a-recession
- https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/history-of-federal-funds-rate/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/termstructure.asp
- https://www.fdic.gov/resources/bankers/capital-markets/interest-rate-risk/
- https://www.cnbc.com/select/mortgage-affordability/
- https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2024-02-20/leading-economic-indicators-no-longer-forecasting-a-recession
- https://quizlet.com/92268439/intro-to-business-chapter-2-economic-activity-flash-cards/
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Recession
- https://www.albany.edu/~bd445/Economics_802_Financial_Economics_Slides_Fall_2013/Term_Structure_(Print).pdf
- https://www.taxmann.com/post/blog/business-cycle-deciphering-the-phases-causes-and-impacts-for-informed-decision-making/?amp
- https://www.quickenloans.com/learn/effects-of-inflation
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/what-are-the-differences-between-the-risk-structure-of-interest-rates-and-the-term-structure-of-interest-rates.html
- https://accordfinancial.com/latest/2023/09/how-high-interest-rates-affect-small-business-loans/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031815/what-zero-interestrate-policy-zirp.asp
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351516/japan-central-bank-policy-rate/
- https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/rate-hikes-are-costing-fed-treasury
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052814/these-sectors-benefit-rising-interest-rates.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041015/how-do-interest-rate-changes-affect-profitability-banking-sector.asp
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/what-are-the-components-of-an-interest-rate-why-is-it-important-for-accountants-to-understand-these-components.html
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/in/investing/are-we-in-a-recession/
- https://www.jotform.com/blog/key-challenges-through-the-business-life-cycle/
- https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-consumer-spending-4223572c
- https://www.ramseysolutions.com/real-estate/how-fed-rates-affect-housing
- https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/396/economics/consumer-spending-its-causes-and-effects/
- https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/what-are-the-effects-of-rising-interest-rates--221223
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/interest-rate-affecting-consumers.asp
- https://analystprep.com/study-notes/actuarial-exams/soa/fm-financial-mathematics/determinants-of-interest-rates/
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/071715/how-do-changes-interest-rates-affect-spending-habits-economy.asp
- https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/why-are-interest-rates-in-the-uk-going-up
- https://www.ccn.com/analysis/projected-us-interest-rates-in-5-years/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-spending.asp
- https://squareup.com/gb/en/townsquare/how-interest-rates-affect-business
- https://study.com/academy/lesson/the-business-cycle-economic-performance-over-time.html
- https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/InterestRates.html